Source: profootballfocus.com
Nov 25, 2018; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck (12) makes hand signals at the line of scrimmage against the Miami Dolphins during the third quarter at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to the Wild Card edition of Snaps, Pace, & Stats, where we examine trends in snap totals and no-huddle usage.
It is meant to be a 30,000-foot view of upcoming games, with the goal of identifying which matchups will – and which will not – be played on fertile fantasy football soil.The first round of the playoffs features three rematches, with one of them the third meeting of the season between the Colts and Texans. From a snaps pace perspective, it is a clear standout among the Wild Card matchups. The fact that it will be played first presents an interesting dilemma for DFS aficionados – especially those who make frequent use of the late-swap option. Let’s dive right in with that game.
While it didn’t quite match their Week 4 barnburner that produced 71 points and 167 snaps, we still saw elevated play volume when the Texans hosted the Colts in Week 14. We should see it again Saturday.
Colts games averaged the fifth-most combined snaps this season, one spot ahead of the Texans. Indianapolis deployed the second-most pass-heavy offense during one-score games this year (65.3%), and nothing has changed over the last four weeks (65.8%). They operate at the league’s quickest seconds-per-snap rate and have gone to the no-huddle on 13.4% of their plays (fourth-highest). Only Ben Roethlisberger threw more passes than Andrew Luck this season, and only Patrick Mahomes threw more touchdowns.
Luck strafed Houston for 863 yards and six touchdowns in two games.The Texans underwent a midseason metamorphosis into a more run-heavy offense, but have since reverted. From Week 1 through Week 5, Deshaun Watson dropped back 46.8 times per game. Over the next six contests, his dropbacks average fell to 30 as his coaches tried to insulate their injured quarterback from further damage. Watson’s dropbacks have since rebounded to 42.8 per game, although he still takes a beating behind Houston’s Swiss cheese offensive line (31st in pass-blocking efficiency).
Both the Colts and Texans feature pass funnel defenses, as Houston (first) and Indianapolis (seventh) grade well in run stopping and have more questions in pass coverage. During the last four weeks, opponents have thrown against the Texans on 64.4% of snaps while games were within one score. Considering how close this game projects to be (Texans are two-point favorites), and how ineffective the Colts running backs were against Houston in their last meeting (2.0 yards per carry), we know whose arm will be in constant motion – and injecting the game with play volume.
Given the concentrated touch distributions of these passing games – it’s DeAndre Hopkins and T.Y. Hilton and then everyone else – we know exactly where to start for fantasy. With overall play volume expected to be elevated, ancillary weapons on each offense are also in play – including the elusive Keke Coutee and his balky hamstring. Despite Will Fuller’s presence back in Week 4, Coutee ran the second-most receiver routes for the Texans (80) and saw a whopping 14 targets in the first game of his career. Both defenses also allowed top-three reception averages to tight ends.
Looking through a play-volume prism, this matchup clearly stands out as one to attack on both two- and four-game DFS slates. The fact that it is positioned as the first game of the weekend should not discourage us from loading up.
Judging by the ground-and-pound reputations of these typically plodding offenses, not to mention the Week 3 tractor pull they held a few months ago, this matchup doesn’t shape up as a play-volume bonanza. Fortunately for the game’s fantasy prospects, much has changed since the Cowboys oozed out 13 points on 58 snaps during a loss in Seattle.
After Amari Cooper’s midseason arrival in Dallas, the Cowboys leapt from 26th in plays-per-game to fourth. They added 6.2 snaps, on average. They’ve risen from the 25th-most plays allowed per game to the 20th-most, and the snap-volume injection…
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