An estimated 40 million Americans fill out an NCAA men’s basketball bracket every year, making the “March Madness” tournament one of the biggest draws in sports. These 40 million people will wager about $9 billion. Yeah, that’s a lot of money on the table if you pick a perfect bracket (more on that later).
So how do you pick a perfect bracket?
Here’s the thing: the sizable majority fill out their bracket with their favorite teams or higher ranked teams winning. In 2003, only 25,000 out of the approximately 40 million brackets picked the eventual champs Syracuse to win — which is only about .0625% of the total brackets. In contrast, the top 25 ranked teams accounted for 62% of the approximately 500,000 brackets surveyed.
To get a better bracket, a 2007 study from St Louis University suggests that you pick a certain percentage of higher ranked teams with a bigger percentage of underdogs than usually pick. While the study never directly suggests a quote-unquote “winning” balance, our advice would be roughly half and half: you never know which team is going to be this year’s Cinderella story. And outliers having success happens more often than you would think.
Head coach Frank Martin of the South Carolina Gamecocks celebrates with players after defeating the Duke Blue Devils 88-81 in the second round of the 2017 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena on March 19, 2017…
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