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The technical bounce that’s ready to drive the S&P 500 back to 2,700

Author: Barbara Kollmeyer / Source: MarketWatch

Cabo San Lucas, where the sun almost always shines

The markets have enough to worry about these days, right?

With major U.S. indexes in or near bear territory, a government shutdown under way and the White House falling over itself to assure us no one is firing Fed Chief Powell, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin gobsmacked market participants by revealing that he made a weekend call from a beach in Mexico to the country’s six biggest banks, presumably to assure Wall Street that there’s ample liquidity sloshing around in the fienancial system.

He then tweeted the whole thing, and jaws are still hitting the floor:

Live shot of Steve Mnuchin, Skyping in from Cabo, to assure customers that their assets are safe at Bedford Falls Savings & Loan pic.twitter.com/QwkMaNYMp5

— Bill Grueskin (@BGrueskin)

“Sure, late-cycle jitters are proliferating and yes, investor demand is waning for risky loans (as evidenced by some banks getting stuck holding on to M&A debt), but nobody that I’m aware of was worried about a Lehman-esque systemic seizure,” until now, wrote the anonymous blogger behind the Heisenberg Report.

Boss is still angry about rate raise ?

And the best Idea you could come up with is to yell fire in a crowded theater… https://t.co/P6Vpr1WSow

— Barry Ritholtz (@ritholtz)

Mnuchin has also convened a meeting of the so-called Working Group on Financial Matters for Monday, so more tweets could be on the way. So far, it looks like Treasury cheerleading isn’t going to help stocks.

It’s a shortened Christmas Eve session with big players likely out on vacation until after New Year’s, so watch for meager volume and outsize swings. As opposed the usually scheduled program of big volume and big swings.

Our call of the day delivers some holiday cheer by stepping away from grinch-like calls. From the Kobeissi Letter comes the prediction that a technical bounce that could drive this market right back to 2,700 glory. It has to do with the S&P 500 crossing below the so-called Bollinger Band, which measures market volatility and strong moves headed one way or another.

The S&P 500 has been hanging onto support has at 2,400, notes Adam Kobeissi, founder and editor in chief of The Kobeissi Letter. “The S&P 500 has also crossed 97 points below the Bottom Bollinger Band, which has only happened two previous times on the weekly three-year chart. The last two times this happened, the index rallied 15% and 21.5%, respectively.”

Kobessi says they…

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