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North Korea Is Only a Threat if the U.S. Keeps Provoking Kim Jong-un

Author: Big Think Editors / Source: Big Think

North Korea has a long history of making bellicose threats that defy global norms. So does that mean the country’s leaders are irrational, and will act irrationally?

In 1994, the North Korea threatened to turn neighboring Seoul into a “sea of fire.” When President George W.

Bush deemed the Hermit Kingdom part of the “axis of evil” in 2002, Pyongyang claimed it would “mercilessly wipe out the aggressors.” And after the UN sanctioned North Korea for conducting a nuclear missile test in 2013, the country responded with a lengthy statement that included the line: “Time has come to stage a do-or-die final battle.”

North Korea often puts the U.S. in its crosshairs when it threatens the outside world – at least rhetorically. Deciding if North Korea is a truly unpredictable menace requires asking the question: How much of a threat is the Hermit Kingdom to the U.S., really?

This article is part of series from the Charles Koch Foundation, which believes everyone has the ability to learn, contribute, and succeed provided they have the freedom and opportunity to do so. For more in this series, see — How Traveling Abroad Changes Your Outlook on the World for the Better

The Nuclear Threat

The consensus among security experts is that the primary focus of North Korea’s nuclear program is deterrence—the same strategy used by American and Soviet forces to prevent a nuclear holocaust during the Cold War.

North Korea’s government in Pyongyang wants to prevent an invasion at all costs, and it lashes out each time it feels threatened by the US.

It is a perpetually insecure country—devoting a full 25 percent of its gross domestic product to defense, and much of that to missiles, while its citizens starve.

As of 2017, North Korea could have anywhere from 20 to 60 nuclear weapons that might be deliverable on short-range ballistic missiles. In contrast, the U.S. has nearly 7,000 nuclear weapons that can strike any location on Earth in less than an hour. Pyongyang is fully aware that a first strike on its part would be suicide.

North Korea seems to have learned a lesson from modern military history, though, which is that a small nuclear arsenal could be the only thing keeping it safe from the outside world, as Michael Desch, a professor of political science and founding director of the Notre Dame International Security Center, told Big Think: