As Tesla Ramps Model 3 Production The Stock Downshifts

Author: Chuck Jones / Source: Forbes

Elon Musk speaks onstage during SXSW. Photo by Chris Saucedo/Getty Images for SXSW

While Tesla fell short of making 2,500 Model 3’s per week by the end of March, it is ramping nicely in May as production crosses 3,000 per week and seems poised to move higher. Between emails from Elon Musk to employees and detailed analysis by Model 3 Invites Spreadsheet, it looks like the company could at least come close to 5,000 per week by the end of June.

However, as Model 3 manufacturing has ramped, the stock has sold off . In just the past 9 days the stock has fallen from its recent high of $306.85 on May 9 to $276.82, or 9.8%. From the February 26 peak of $357.42 it is down 22.6% and from the all-time closing high of $385 on September 28 last year it is down 28.

1%. The shorts have been winning the game recently.

Model 3 production increasing

In an email from Elon Musk to Tesla employees on May 2 that electrek obtained he wrote, “It is looking quite likely that we will exceed 500 vehicles per day across all Model 3 production zones this week.” At 3,500 plus for the week this would be a significant improvement from the 2,270 per week that was hit in April for three straight weeks.

In the same email Musk said that the Gigafactory had “managed to achieve a sustained rate of over 3,000 packs per week, and actually reached a peak hour with extrapolated outward would be a rate of about 5,000 cars per week.” While the 3,000 per week at the Gigafactory is less then the 3,500 per week Model 3 production, I would assume that is just a difference by using inventory battery packs that had already been produced. Not a big deal unless the Gigafactory doesn’t continue to ramp in-line with the Fremont site.

There are Model 3 fans who are tracking VINs, or Vehicle Identification Numbers. One of them the, Model 3 Invites Spreadsheet, is a Google Doc which contains a tremendous amount of data. While some of its analysis is based on Model 3 buyers inputting their VIN into it, the spreadsheet also uses VIN information provided from the NHTSA, or National Highway Transportation Safety Administration.

Its latest estimate has Model 3 production at 3,125 per week.

Don’t be spooked by a May plant shutdown

Reuters reported this week that Tesla will shut down its Fremont facility from May 26 to 31. This is a planned stoppage that has been talked about by company management, so investors shouldn’t get “excited” about it.