The nominations for the 90th Oscars were handed down Tuesday morning, and leave pundits like myself with as many new questions as answers as we head into the 41-day homestretch of this awards season.
The general sense of the best picture contest, in recent days, had been that it had narrowed to a two-way race between The Shape of Water and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, both Fox Searchlight films centered on female protagonists.
Today, Shape was the stronger performer, exceeding most expectations by registering a field-leading 13 noms, including acknowledgment for Guillermo del Toro‘s direction, del Toro’s and Vanessa Taylor‘s screenplay, three of its castmembers (lead actress Sally Hawkins, supporting actor Richard Jenkins and supporting actress Octavia Spencer) and every technical field except best visual effects.However, while Shape won the best picture Critics’ Choice Award and the top PGA Award, it did not receive a best ensemble SAG Award nom, without which no film has won the best picture Oscar in 22 years — in fact, last year, when La La Land similarly did not land a SAG ensemble nom, that was the only indicator that, in the end, it would not win the best picture Oscar.
Three Billboards, meanwhile, landed seven noms, including three for acting (Frances McDormand for lead actress and Woody Harrelson and Sam Rockwell for best supporting actor) to go with one for Martin McDonagh‘s screenplay. But McDonagh, who landed a DGA Award nomination earlier this month, was not able to follow that with a best director nom today, and only two films in the last 85 years — Driving Miss Daisy (1989) and Argo (2013) — won the best picture Oscar without also being represented in the directing category.
That raises the question: could one of this year’s seven other best picture nominees pull off a win? Considering that the Academy employs a preferential ballot that rewards consensus over passion — unlike any of the other awards groups except the PGA — it’s certainly possible.
Dunkirk received eight noms, second only to Shape, including a best director nomd for Christopher Nolan — but it was not nominated for its screenplay or any of its performances, and the last time a film overcame that scenario to win best picture was 85 years ago (Grand Hotel won despite receiving no other nominations). Therefore, the likelier candidates are Greta Gerwig‘s Lady Bird and Jordan Peele‘s Get Out, which landed five and four noms, respectively. Gerwig and Peele both scored for directing — becoming only the fifth woman and fifth black person, respectively, ever to be nominated in the category — as well as for screenwriting, and their films each garnered at least one acting nom (Saoirse Ronan and Laurie Metcalf for the former, Daniel Kaluuya for the latter). Still, it must be noted that neither showed up in the best film editing category, which is often seen as a key indicator of strength.
It’s hard to fathom any of the top category’s other four nominees prevailing, but each has its own reasons to celebrate this morning. The highly divisive Phantom Thread outperformed virtually all expectations by snagging noms for not only best actor (for Daniel Day-Lewis‘ last performance) and best costume design (Mark Bridges‘ work is the heavy favorite), but also best picture, best director (Paul Thomas Anderson), best supporting actress (Lesley Manville) and best original score.
Call Me by Your Name‘s 22-year-old…
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